تهدیدات توسعه حضور ناتو در منطقه برای ایران

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده :

محمدجواد سلطانی

کارشناس ارشد مسایل بین‌المللی، پژوهشگر همکار مؤسسه مطالعات راهبردی اندیشه‌سازان نور

چکیده

غرب آسیا در صد سال اخیر دو نوع نهادهای امنیتی را به خود دیده است: نهادهای امنیتی فرامنطقه‌ای که به این ناحیه نفوذ کرده‌اند، مثل پیمان سنتو و نهادهای امنیتی درون منطقه‌ای. طرح توسعه فعالیت‌های ناتو در این منطقه به اواسط دهه ۱۹۸۰ برمی‌گردد و اکنون ترامپ خواستار فعالیت جدی‌تر این سازمان در غرب آسیا شده است. با توجه به وضعیت پیچیده منطقه از نظر تراکم انواع بحران‌ها بین کشورها و استقبال کشورهای عربی از این سازمان، امکان شکل‌گیری چارچوب‌ کار امنیتی جدیدی در منطقه وجود دارد که می‌تواند معادله باز‌دارندگی بین کشورهای عربی در مقابل ایران را تغییر دهد. این مساله به‌ویژه برای ایران مهم است که اغلب ترتیبات جمعی و امنیتی منطقه حول تهدید تلقی کردن این کشور تداوم یافته است. توسعه فعالیت‌های ناتو در غرب آسیا چه پیامدهایی برای ایران خواهد داشت و چگونه راهبرد بازدارندگی این کشور را متاثر می‌سازد؟ به‌نظر می‌رسد حضور این سازمان امنیتی زمینه افزایش تقابل‌گرایی در درون منطقه و افزایش تحرکات علیه ایران را افزایش خواهد داد. چرا که ایران با حضور ناتو با یک چرخه بازدارندگی فرامنطقه‌ای مواجه خواهد شد. در حالی که این کشور توان رژیم‌سازی محدودی نسبت به رقبای خود دارد.

واژگان کلیدی

غرب آسیا، بازدارندگی، موازنه نظامی، ناتو، ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Threats from the expansion of NATO presence in the region for Iran

نویسنده  [English]

Mohammad Javad Soltani

چکیده [English]

Abstract

Over the past hundred years, West Asia has seen two types of security organizations: trans-regional security organizations that have infiltrated the region, such as the Santo Pact, and intra-regional security organizations. The plan to expand NATO activities in this region dates back to the mid-1980s, and now Trump calling for more serious activity in West Asia. Given the complex situation in the region in terms of the concentration of crises between countries and the Arab countries’ acceptance of this organization, it is possible to form a new security framework in the region that can change the equation of deterrence between Arab countries against Iran. This is especially important for Iran, where most of the collective and security arrangements in the region continue to be seen as a threat of Iran. What will be the consequences of the development of NATO activities in West Asia for Iran, and how will it affect its deterrence strategy? It seems that the presence of this security organization will increase the ground for confrontation within the region and increase the movements against Iran, because with the presence of NATO, Iran will face a cycle of trans-regional deterrence. While this country has a limited regime-building power compared to its rivals.

Syria’s geographical position is such that it provides the ground for geographical connectivity between Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and is a link between this chain, and this issue has given this country an important role and position in the eyes of the Islamic Republic of Iran and because of its support for the Axis of Resistance, this country is referred to as the “backbone of the Axis of Resistance.”

Following the crisis in Syria, as a strategic ally of Iran in many issues in the region, the Islamic Republic entered Syria as a supporter of this country and took steps to support it in various political, military, security, economic and media fields.

واژگان کلیدی[English]

Keywords

West Asia, deterrence, military balance, NATO, Iran

عنوان مقاله [العربية]

تهديدات لتطوير وجود الناتو في المنطقة بالنسبة لإيران

چکیده [العربية]

المخلص

على مدى المائة عام الماضية‌، شهدت منطقة غرب آسيا نوعين من الوكالات الأمنية: وكالات الأمن عبر الإقليمية التي تسللت إلى المنطقة‌، مثل حلف سانتو‌، ووكالات الأمن داخل المنطقة. تعود خطة توسيع أنشطة الناتو في المنطقة إلى منتصف الثمانينيات‌، والآن يدعو ترامب إلى نشاط أكثر جدية في غرب آسيا. بالنظر إلى الأوضاع المعقدة في المنطقة من حيث تركز الأزمات بين الدول وقبول الدول العربية لهذه المنظمة‌، فمن الممكن تشكيل إطار أمني جديد في المنطقة يمكن أن يغير معادلة الردع بين الدول العربية ضد إيران. . هذا مهم بشكل خاص بالنسبة لإيران‌، حيث لا يزال يُنظر إلى معظم الترتيبات الجماعية والأمنية في المنطقة على تهديد الإیران. ماذا ستكون عواقب تطوير أنشطة الناتو في غرب آسيا بالنسبة لإيران‌، وكيف ستؤثر على استراتيجية الردع الخاصة بها؟ ويبدو أن وجود هذا التنظيم الأمني ​​سيزيد من أرضية المواجهة داخل المنطقة ويزيد من الحركات ضد إيران. لأنه بوجود الناتو‌، ستواجه إيران حلقة ردع عابرة للمناطق. في حين أن هذا البلد لديه قوة محدودة لبناء نظام مقارنة بمنافسيه.

الكلمات المفتاحية

غرب آسيا، الردع، التوازن العسكري، الناتو، إيران

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