چشم‌انداز اقدامات تکفیری‌ها پس از شکست نظامی در عراق

فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردي جهان اسلام، هجدهم، شماره ۲، پياپي ۷۰، تابستان ۱۳۹۶؛ صفحات ۵-۳۰

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسنده:

* اميرحامد آزاد

* دانشجوي دکتري روابط بين‌الملل

چکیده

نابودی نمادهای خلافت به­عنوان مراکز ثقل فیزیکی داعش به معنی نابودی کامل سازمان و پایان اقدامات داعش در عراق نیست. اگرچه مي‌تواند يک مرحله مهم از نابودي آن تلقي گردد. از منظر ایدئولوژیک، عراق و به­طور خاص بغداد دارای جایگاه ویژه‌ای برای اقامه دولت و اعاده خلافت برای داعش به حساب مي‌آمد. داعش با تن دادن به پايان تصمیم‌گیری یکپارچه و واسپاری آن به مراکز ثقل کوچک، اگرچه از بخش زيادي از توانايي خود دست کشيده است در عين حال امکان شناسایی توانایی‌های مهم و اقدامات اثر‌گذار علیه مرکزيت خود را با دشواری­های زیادی روبرو ساخته است. بر اين اساس بايد گفت نابودی کامل داعش نیازمند مجموعه‌ای از اقدامات بازدارنده و مهارکننده سیال برای شناخت آسیب‌پذیری‌های حیاتی مراکز ثقل محلی این گروه است و البته تا آن زمان قاعدتاً اقدامات تروريستي داعش در منطقه ادامه مي‌يابد.

واژگان کلیدی

داعش، مرکز ثقل، ایدئولوژی، منابع قدرت، خلافت

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prospect of Takfiri’s actions after military

defeat in Iraq

نویسنده  [English]

Amir hamed Azad

چکیده [English]

Abstract

Destruction of Caliphate Symbols, as the ISIS physical center of mass, would not be the end of organization and its military operation in Iraq. Ideologically, the process of establishing the government and restoring Islamic caliphate to ISIS, Iraq and in particular Baghdad are of prominent value. Putting an end to integrated decision making and leaving to small cores, ISIS has made it difficult to be tracked; hence it would be difficult to identify its capabilities and even more difficult to act against, effectively. The total destruction of ISIS requires a set of dynamic deterrence and containing measures in order to identify vulnerabilities of local ISIS center of mass.

واژگان کلیدی[English]

Keywords

ISIS, Center of mass, Ideology, Power source, Caliphate

عنوان مقاله [العربية]

مستقبل أعمال التكفيريين بعد إنهزامهم العسكري في العراق

چکیده [العربية]

المخلص

إن تدمير رموز الخلافة على أنها بؤرة لتنظيم داعش الإرهابي، لايعني القضاء عليه بشكل كامل ونهاية العمليات العسكرية للتنظيم في العراق. من وجهة النظر الأيديولوجية للعراق وخاصة بغداد، تنظيم داعش الإرهابي لديه موقف خاص لإقامة الحكومة وإعادة الخلافة الإسلامية. وقد إنهى تنظيم داعش الإرهابي قراراته المتكاملة وحوَّلها إلى بؤر صغيرة مما يصعب هذا الأمر إمكانية تحديد القدرات الهامة والأعمال الفعالة ضد مراكز البؤر الصغيرة. ویتطلب التدمير الكامل لتنظيم داعش الإرهابي إلى إتخاذ إجراءات رادعة وتحديد المواقف الضعيفة لبؤر والتي تنتمي إلى تنظيم داعش الإرهابي.

الكلمات المفتاحية

داعش، مركز الثقل، أيديولوجية، مصادر القدرة، الخلافة

– آزاد، امیرحامد، بررسی نقش عراق در جنگ سوریه، ۱۳۹۴، تهران: مؤسسه مطالعات اندیشه­سازان نور.

– ـــــــــــــ، آینده داعش در عراق بعد از موصل، ۱۳۹۵، تهران: مؤسسه مطالعات اندیشه­سازان نور.

– ــــــــــــ، بررسی ظرفیت‌های اجتماعی داعش در بحران امنیتی عراق، ۱۳۹۵، تهران: مؤسسه مطالعات اندیشه‌سازان نور.

– الجزیره، شيوخ عشائر الفلوجة يبايعون البغدادي و يهاجمون الحكومة، ۲۰۱۵،

http://www.aljazeera.net/news/arabic/2015/6/3/

– الهاشمی، محمد صادق، سنه العراق: دراسه فی ابرز التحولات السیاسیه الاحزاب السنیه فی العراق بعد عام ۲۰۰۳ ، ۲۰۱۳، سلسله اصدارات (۶۲)، مرکز العراق للدراسات.

– الموقع الرسمي للرجال الطريقة النقشبندية، ۲۰۱۵، جيشنا (جيش رجال الطريقة النقشبندية)،  

http://www.alnakshabandia.net/army/index.php/our-army

– نشرة النبأ، حصاد العمليات العسكرية للدولة الإسلامية – لسنة ۱۴۳۳ في العراق منتدى ثورة العراق، https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/al-binc481-magazine-1.pdf

– National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism: Annex of Statistical Information, 2014, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism a Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Based at the University of Maryland, https://www.state.gov /documents/organization n/239628.pdf.

– National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism: Annex of Statistical Information, 2016, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism a Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Center of Excellence Based at the University of Maryland, https://www.state.gov/j/ ct/rls/crt/2016/272241.htm.

 -Dabiq, 1435, (Issue1), the Return of Khilafah.

-Dabiq, 1435, (Issue4), the Failed Crusade.

-Dabiq, 1437, (Issue13), The Raideh: From Ibn Saba’ To the Dajjal.

-Greenberg quinlan rosner research, 2017, Improved Security Provides Opening for Cooperation (March –April 2017 Survey Findings), https://www.ndi.org/sites/ default/ files/Iraq%20 April%202017%20Survey%20Public%20Final%20%281%29%20%281%29.pdf.

-Headquarters Department of the Army, ADRP 3-0, 2012, Unified Land Operations, Distribution Restriction: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited, https://fas.org/irp/doddir/army/adrp3_0.pdf.

-Headquarters Department of the Army, 2013, ADRP1-02, C2, Operational Terms and Military Symbols, Change No. 2 Washington, DC, 2012: http://armyrotc.msu. edu/ resources/ adrp1_02.pdf.

– IIACSS, 2015, Combating Da’esh: We Are Losing the Battle for Hearts and Minds, https://www.slideshare.net/TWIPubs/combating-daesh-we-are-losing-the-battle-for-hearts-and-minds?ref=http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-islamic-state-new-inside-views.

-Jones, Seth G., 2014, A Persistent Threat, The Evolution of al Qa’ida and Other Salafi Jihadists, RAND, NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, ISBN: 978-0-8330-8572-6, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs /research_reports/RR600/ RR637/ RAND_RR637. pdf.

-Lang, Jr, W. Patrick & others, 2006, Al-Anbar Governorate, Study Conducted Under Contract with the Department of Defense, http://turcopolier.typepad.com/ the_athenaeum/ files/iraq_tribal_study_070907.pdf.

-Lewis, Jessica D., 2014, the Islamic State: a Counter-Strategy for a Counter-State: MIDDLE EAST SECURITY REPORT 21, Published in the United States of America by the Institute for the Study of War:http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Lewis-Center%20 of%20 gravity.pdf.

-Potter, Shayla D. 2013, the Center of Gravity Concept: A study Of its Description and Application in Two Different eras, School of Advanced Military Studies United States Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, www.dtic.mil/get-tr-doc/pdf?AD=ADA606275.

-Rueschhoff, Jan L., and Dunne, Jonathan P, 2011, Centers of Gravity from the ‘Inside Out, Joint Force Quarterly 60, http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/jfq/ rueschhoff_dunne_ cog_inside_out.pdf.

-Strange, Joseph L. (1996). Centers of Gravity and Critical Vulnerabilities: Building on the Clausewitz an Foundation So We Can All Speak the Same Language, Perspectives on Warfighting Number Four, 2nd ed. Quantico, VA: Marine Corps Association, http://jfsc.ndu.edu/Portals/72/Documents/JC2IOS/Additional_Reading/3B_COG_and_Critical_Vulnerabilities.pdf.

-U.S. Department of State, 2009, Zarqawi letter to Zawahiri. “February 2004 Coalition Provisional Authority English translation of terrorist Musab al Zarqawi letter obtained by United States Government in Iraq,” U.S. Department of State, http://2001-2009.state.gov/p/ nea/rls/31694.htm .

– U.S Department of Defense, 2010, with Gen. Odierno from the Pentagon, Presenter: Commander, U.S. Forces-Iraq Gen. Raymond Odierno, http://www.defense.gov/ transcripts/ transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4632.  

-U.S Department of Defence, 2014, Department of Defense Press Briefing by Rear Adm. Kirby in the Pentagon Briefing Room, https://www.defense.gov/ News/Transcripts/ Transcript-View/Article/606928.

– U.S Department of Defence, 2016, Isolation, Liberation of Raqqa Key in Defeating ISIL, Pentagon Spokesman Says, https://www.defense.gov/News/ Article/Article/998570/ isolation-liberation-of-raqqa-key-in-defeating-isil-pentagon-spokesman-says/.

-Security Council (S/2017/35), 2017, Letter dated 11 January 2017 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolutions 1267(1999), 1989 (2011)and 2253 (2015)concerning Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals, groups, undertakings and entities addressed to the President of the Security Council, https://undocs.org/S/2017/35.

– Security Council (S/2017/467), 2017, fifth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat, https://undocs.org/ en/S/2017/467.

-Security Council (8007TH Meeting), 2017, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2368 (2017), Security Council Reaffirms Its Resolve to Combat Terrorism, SC/12917, https://www. un.org/press/en/2017/sc12917.doc.htm.

– Sowell, Kirk H., 2017, Debates over how to oversee and tally votes in Iraq’s provincial and national elections could spill over into popular unrest, http://carnegieendowment. org/sada/68730.