چشم‌انداز اقدامات تکفیری‌ها پس از شکست نظامی در عراق

نوع مقاله :پژوهشی

نویسنده :

اميرحامد آزاد *

* دانشجوي دکتري روابط بين‌الملل 

 ایمیل نویسنده

چکیده

نابودی نمادهای خلافت به­عنوان مراکز ثقل فیزیکی داعش به معنی نابودی کامل سازمان و پایان اقدامات داعش در عراق نیست. اگرچه مي‌تواند يک مرحله مهم از نابودي آن تلقي گردد. از منظر ایدئولوژیک، عراق و به­طور خاص بغداد دارای جایگاه ویژه‌ای برای اقامه دولت و اعاده خلافت برای داعش به حساب مي‌آمد. داعش با تن دادن به پايان تصمیم‌گیری یکپارچه و واسپاری آن به مراکز ثقل کوچک، اگرچه از بخش زيادي از توانايي خود دست کشيده است در عين حال امکان شناسایی توانایی‌های مهم و اقدامات اثر‌گذار علیه مرکزيت خود را با دشواری­های زیادی روبرو ساخته است. بر اين اساس بايد گفت نابودی کامل داعش نیازمند مجموعه‌ای از اقدامات بازدارنده و مهارکننده سیال برای شناخت آسیب‌پذیری‌های حیاتی مراکز ثقل محلی این گروه است و البته تا آن زمان قاعدتاً اقدامات تروريستي داعش در منطقه ادامه مي‌يابد.

واژگان کلیدی

داعش، مرکز ثقل، ایدئولوژی، منابع قدرت، خلافت

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prospect of Takfiri’s actions after military

defeat in Iraq

نویسنده  [English]

Amir hamed Azad

چکیده [English]

Abstract

Destruction of Caliphate Symbols, as the ISIS physical center of mass, would not be the end of organization and its military operation in Iraq. Ideologically, the process of establishing the government and restoring Islamic caliphate to ISIS, Iraq and in particular Baghdad are of prominent value. Putting an end to integrated decision making and leaving to small cores, ISIS has made it difficult to be tracked; hence it would be difficult to identify its capabilities and even more difficult to act against, effectively. The total destruction of ISIS requires a set of dynamic deterrence and containing measures in order to identify vulnerabilities of local ISIS center of mass.

واژگان کلیدی[English]

Keywords

ISIS, Center of mass, Ideology, Power source, Caliphate

عنوان مقاله [العربية]

مستقبل أعمال التكفيريين بعد إنهزامهم العسكري في العراق

چکیده [العربية]

المخلص

إن تدمير رموز الخلافة على أنها بؤرة لتنظيم داعش الإرهابي، لايعني القضاء عليه بشكل كامل ونهاية العمليات العسكرية للتنظيم في العراق. من وجهة النظر الأيديولوجية للعراق وخاصة بغداد، تنظيم داعش الإرهابي لديه موقف خاص لإقامة الحكومة وإعادة الخلافة الإسلامية. وقد إنهى تنظيم داعش الإرهابي قراراته المتكاملة وحوَّلها إلى بؤر صغيرة مما يصعب هذا الأمر إمكانية تحديد القدرات الهامة والأعمال الفعالة ضد مراكز البؤر الصغيرة. ویتطلب التدمير الكامل لتنظيم داعش الإرهابي إلى إتخاذ إجراءات رادعة وتحديد المواقف الضعيفة لبؤر والتي تنتمي إلى تنظيم داعش الإرهابي.

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داعش، مركز الثقل، أيديولوجية، مصادر القدرة، الخلافة

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