روسيه و برنامه هسته‌اي ايران؛ منافع و دستاوردها

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسنده :

* عليرضا نوري

* دانشجوي دكتري روابط بين‌الملل، دانشگاه دولتي سن پترزبورگ 

 ایمیل نویسنده

چکیده

روسیه در کشاکش پرونده هسته‌ای ایران همواره تلاش كرده است تا با اتخاذ موضعی میانگیر، منافع خود را هم‌زمان در دو سوی این کشمکش یعنی تهران و غرب حفظ کند. به ‌رغم مدعای مسكو در مورد اصولی بودن این رویکرد و بازی مستقل در محیطی پیچیده، وابسته شدن بیش از حد بازی مسکو به متغیر «امریکا» و فرض اهمیتِ اندک سوی دیگر این معادله یعنی ایران را می‌توان نمودی عینی از وجود نقص در این سیاست دانست. در برآوردی کلان و صرفه‌نظر از برخی نوسانات تاکتیکی، چیستی نقش مسکو در پرونده هسته‌ای ایران چیزی بیش از بازي منفعل در چارچوب برساخته امریکا نبوده است. به واسطه همین عملکرد تبعی، وقوف نظری کرملین به اهداف کلان چرایی فشارها بر تهران که همانا تلاش برای هم‌ساز کردن آن با زیاده‌خواهی‌های بلندمدت واشنگتن در خاورمیانه است، به متن سیاست «عملی» روسیه وارد نشده و این رفتار مغایر با اصول ادعایی مسکو در مخالفت با توسعه‌طلبی‌ امریکا و بودگی به عنوان یک «قدرت بزرگ مستقل» است.

واژگان کلیدی

برنامه هسته‌ای ایران، روسیه، امریکا، قدرت بزرگ، خاورمیانه بزرگ، بمب اتم، تحریم، جنگ

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Feasibility Russia and Iran’s nuclear program: Interests and achievements

نویسنده  [English]

Ali-reza Nouri

چکیده [English]

Abstract

In the conflict of Iran’s nuclear case, Russian has always tried to adopt buffer stance to protect its interests at the same time on both sides of the conflict say Tehran and the West. Despite Moscow’s claims on the normality of this approach – independent game in a complex environment, excessive dependence of Moscow’s game on “SU” variable and assuming that the other end of the equation namely Iran has minor importance, can be regarded as the concrete manifest of the flaws in this policy. In overall estimation and regardless of some tactical variations, the nature of Moscow’s role on Iran’s nuclear case was not more than a passive action in the frame constructed by US. Due to this consequential performance, Kremlin’s theoretical knowledge on the objectives of the pressure on Tehran – which is aimed to accommodate it to Washington’s Long-term excesses in the Middle East –has not entered in the context of the “practical” policy of Russia. This behavior is inconsistent with the alleged principles of Moscow in opposing US expansionism and incompatible with its being as a “great independent power”.

واژگان کلیدی[English]

Keywords

Iran’s nuclear program, Russia, the United States, great power, the great Middle East, nuclear bomb, sanctions, war

عنوان مقاله [العربية]

روسيا والبرنامج النووي الإيراني؛ مصالح وإنجازات

چکیده [العربية]

المخلص

حاولت روسيا دائماً فيما یخص قضية ايران النووية ومن خلال تبني موقف وسط، الحفاظ علی مصالحها في كلا طرفي النزاع أي طهران والغرب بالتزامن. وعلى الرغم من ادعاءات موسكو حول مبدئیة هذا النهج واللعب بشكل مستقل في بيئة معقدة، فیمکن اعتبار الاعتماد الزائد للعبة موسكو علی متغیر «أمريكا» وافتراض الأهمية الضئيلة للناحية الأخرى من المعادلة أي إیران، دليلاً ملموساً على وجود خلل في هذه السياسة.

في تقدير عام وبغض النظر عن بعض الاختلافات التكتيكية، لم یکن دور موسكو في القضية النووية الايرانية شیئاً أكثر من مجرد لعبة منفعلة في الإطار الأمريكي. ونتيجة لهذا الأداء التبعي، المعرفة النظرية للكرملين للأهداف العامة لسبب الضغوط على طهران والذي هو محاولة لاستيعابها في مطالب واشنطن المبالغ فيها على المدى الطويل في الشرق الأوسط، لم یرد في سياسة روسيا «العملية»، وهذا السلوك غير متناسق مع مبادئ موسكو المزعومة في معارضة النزعة التوسعية الأمريكية وکونها «القوة المستقلة العظمى».

الكلمات المفتاحية

برنامج إيران النووي، روسيا، أمريكا، القوة العظمى، الشرق الأوسط الكبير، القنبلة الذرية، العقوبات، الحرب

ـ «اظهار تأسف دکتر احمدي‌نژاد از سخنان رئيس‌جمهور روسيه» (۱ مرداد ۱۳۸۹)، پايگاه اطلاع‌رساني رياست‌جمهوري اسلامي. quoted in:   http://www.president.ir/fa/?ArtID=23013&term=

ـ «مسئولان روسيه بايد رفتار و مواضع خود را در قبال جمهوري اسلامي ايران اصلاح و شفاف كنند» (۵ خرداد ۱۳۸۹)، پايگاه اطلاع‌رساني رياست‌جمهوري اسلامي.

 quoted in: http://www.president.ir/fa/?ArtID=22132&term

ـ کرمی، جهانگیر و عليرضا نوري (تابستان ۱۳۹۱)، «روسيه، انقلاب‌هاي عربي و «چالش سيستمي» در خاورميانه»، فصلنامة مطالعات آسياي مركزي و قفقاز، ۷۸: ۱۹۱ ـ ۱۶۷٫

ـ مشیرزاده، حمیرا (۱۳۸۶)، «چرخش در سیاست خارجی ایالات متحده و حمله به عراق: زمینه‌های گفتمانی داخلی»، فصلنامه ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ، داﻧﺸﻜﺪه ﺣﻘﻮق و ﻋﻠﻮم ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ دانشگاه تهران، ۳۷ (۲).

ـ نوري، علي‌رضا (ارديبهشت ۲۴، ۱۳۹۱)، «پوتين، ايران و مسئله «كيك بزرگ‌تر» در سياست خارجي روسيه»، پايگاه اطلاع‌رساني مؤسسه مطالعات ابرار معاصر تهران

quoted in:   http://www.tisri.org/default-1103.aspx

ـ نوري، علي‌رضا (بهار ۱۳۹۰)، «ايران و اصل «سازگاري» در سياست خارجي روسيه در دورة مدويديف»، فصلنامة مطالعات آسياي مركزي و قفقاز، ۷۳: ۲۰۵ ـ ۱۷۱٫

ـ نوري، علي‌رضا (فروردین ۱۳۹۳)، «پرونده هسته‌ای ایران» در تقابل روسیه و غرب»، پايگاه اطلاع‌رساني مؤسسه مطالعات ابرار معاصر تهران.

quoted in:   http://www.tisri.org/default-1534.aspx

 

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